High Levels of Activity at North Korea’s Sinpo South
Shipyard
August 11, 2017
A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Joseph S. Bermudez
Jr.
Recent commercial satellite imagery reveals several
developments suggesting that North Korea may be accelerating the development of
the sea-based leg of its nuclear forces. Of particular interest in the imagery
is that netting or tarps have been suspended above both the fore and aft decks
of the SINPO-class submarine obscuring any activity taking place beneath them.
This was last done prior to the July 9, 2016 test of the Pukguksong-1,
suggesting that the North may be preparing for a new series of “at sea” test
launches, has undertaken modifications or upgrades to the submarine’s launch
systems, or is developing a more advanced version of the Pukguksong-1. Recent
ejection tests of an SLBM also support the assessment that an at-sea SLBM test
may be forthcoming.
Additionally, imagery of the Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and
Submarine Base shows the same number of ROMEO-class submarines that are usually
berthed there, indicating that a recent spike in ROMEO activity in the East Sea
(Sea of Japan) was a singular rather than force-wide event.
Seen during Kim Jong Un’s July concert honoring
participants in the ballistic missile program is this Pukguksong missile, which
may be a Pukguksong-3 (note the number over the shoulder of the official on the
right). If it is, it unknown whether this is a SLBM or a surface-to-surface
ballistic missile (SSM). (Photo: KCTV) Activity at the Secure Boat Basin
Commercial satellite imagery from August 7, although
partially cloud covered, provides a limited look at the status of the SINPO-class[1]
experimental ballistic missile submarine (SSBA), the submersible test stand
barge and parts of the Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and Submarine Base.
As noted in our July report, sometime during the last
week in May, the SINPO-class submarine was repositioned forward along its dock
and the submersible test stand barge was moved to a position aft of the
submarine (both had previously been in their former positions since December 9,
2016). Since the July report, netting or tarps have been suspended above both
the fore and aft decks of the submarine obscuring any activity taking place
beneath them. The only other time this was seen was during May-July 2016 and
prior to the failed July 9, 2016 Pukguksong-1 test. It is unclear if this
activity is signaling a forthcoming at sea SLBM test, although the recent
ejection tests would support such an assessment. No activity is noted on or
near the submersible test stand barge in the latest image.
Elsewhere at the Sinpo South Shipyard
Much of the Sinpo South Shipyard is obscured by clouds,
as is the static test stand. In the area of the construction and fabrication
halls, the continued movement of large parts in and out of the parts yard and
the associated gantry and tower cranes is noted. There is, however, no
indication of what is being constructed within the halls. At the southern tip
of the Yuktaeso-ri (Sinpo) Peninsula, construction of the new construction hall
and its associated L-shaped pier continues at a very slow pace.
Activity at Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and Submarine Base
Imagery of the Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and Submarine Base
shows the same number of ROMEO-class submarines that are usually berthed there,
indicating that a recent spike in ROMEO activity in the East Sea (Sea of Japan)
was a singular rather than force-wide event. The week-long patrol by a
ROMEO-class attack submarine in the East Sea (Sea of Japan) was “highly unusual
and unprecedented,” as Korea People’s Navy submarines have not been known to
venture far from their home ports over the past ten years. The few times they
have, it has been only to participate in short annual military exercises. The
purpose of this recent activity is unclear, but there are several potential
explanations including: Kim Jong Un’s desire to expand his provocative policy
of the past two years into the naval arena; a practical exercise demonstrating
renewed North Korean offensive naval capabilities (potentially a component of
the strategic review of military capabilities ordered by Kim Jong Un when he
came to power); a training cruise intended to prepare a submarine and its crew
for a longer cruise to monitor future ballistic missile tests or conduct
offensive conventional attack missions; validation of upgrades to the ROMEO-class
submarine (a number of ROMEO-class submarines have been undergoing extended
maintenance and refurbishment during the past five years)—or some combination
of the above.
The Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and Submarine Base is the
largest submarine facility in North Korea and the primary ROMEO-class submarine
base on the east coast. A smaller secondary submarine base is located at Chaho,
45 km northeast of Mayang-do. It is unclear from which base the ROMEO-class
submarine involved in the July “unusual activities” was deployed, but it was
likely from Mayang-do.
A preliminary comparison of the submarine activity at
both the Mayang-do Navy Shipyard and Submarine Base during the past twelve
months with the August 7 image shows the number of ROMEO-class submarines has
remained relatively constant, averaging 12-15; and the number of SANGO-class
coastal submarines averaging 11-15.[2] In the August 7 image, 12 ROMEO- and 15
SANGO-class submarines are berthed.[3] This suggests that the July “unusual
activities” were a singular event rather than a force-wide event. Regardless,
extended North Korean operations in the East Sea should be viewed with concern.
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