FirstNuclear Deterrence Patrol Marks Major Step for Indian Submarine Force

By: Tim Fish

November 12, 201812:58 PM, USNI

When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier thismonth that the Indian Navy had completed its first sea-based nuclear deterrentpatrol it was more of astatement of intent than a demonstration of a new capability.

The Indian Navy’s new ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arihantwas the boomer that completed the month-long deterrent patrol. Whilst this isnot insignificant – it is the first country outside of the five members of theU.N. Security Council to develop this capability – it also shows how far awayIndia is to achieve its goal of joining the other great powers in establishinga credible sea-based deterrent.

Only the U.S., U.K., France and Russia can sustaincontinuous-at-sea deterrent patrols, which a provides continuous launchcapability of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) by maintaining atleast one SSBN on station at any one time that could fire a nuclear missile. Acontinuous patrol requires a minimum of four SSBNs.

The patrol as a statement will have more effect in diplomaticcircles than in military ones. India wants to join the club of countries thatcan support a sea-based deterrent and eventually achieve a continuous at-seanuclear deterrent. It also means India will have the ability to launch allthree air, land and sea-based types of nuclear weapons and a more robust secondstrike capability.

“The Indians have long desired a nuclear triad that’ll allow itto deter erstwhile adversaries namely Pakistan and China,” Collin Koh SweeLean, from the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. RajaratnamSchool of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore told USNI News. “The questfor sea-based nuclear deterrent is based on at least the theory that asubmarine-launched strategic offensive missile constitutes a highly securecapability by virtue of the characteristics of a nuclear-powered submarine,compared to air and land-based systems which could be taken out.”

Arihant’sdesign is based on Russia’s Akula-class submarine and it was commissioned in2016. Displacing 6,000 tons, the boat was built under India’s AdvancedTechnology Vessel (ATV) programme that was confirmed in 1998 although it tookother forms before this. The IN has operated the 8,000-ton nuclear-poweredattack submarine (SSN) INS Chakra (former K-152 Nerpa), which ithas leased from Russia for 10 years starting in 2012 following extensive seatrials. This has informed the operation of Arihant.

Since its commissioning, Arihant has mainly been used asa training platform and technology demonstrator. The submarine is capable offiring up to four K-4 intermediate range SLBMs that can reach over 2,000 milesor 12 short-range K-15 Sagarika missiles that can hit targets at a range ofalmost 500 miles. However, India has a policy of keeping its warheads separatefrom its missiles, so it is unclear if Arihant’s deterrent patrol usedarmed SLBMs.

By comparison the United States operates 14 Ohio-class SSBNsthat represent the US Navy’s sea-based deterrent. Displacing 18,750 tons eachboat can hold 24 D-5 Trident II intercontinental SLBMs (which can reach morethan 7,500 miles) and normally conducts a deterrent patrol lasting 70 to 90days. First-of-class USS Ohio (SSGN-726) entered service in 1981 and theclass will start to retire from 2029 to be gradually replaced by 12 newColumbia-class (SSBN-826) boomers. The Columbias are expected to be of asimilar size, although with 16 launch tubes to carry the D-5.

The U.K. Royal Navy operates four Vanguard-class submarines thatalso fire the D-5 with tubes for 16 missiles. HMS Vanguard enteredservice in 1994 and the class is expected to leave service from the 2030s to bereplaced by four new Dreadnought-class SSBNs. Due to the fewer number of boatsconducting patrols, it is likely that the Vanguards will undertake longerpatrols than their American counterparts, USNI News understands.

Russia’s sea-deterrent has transitioned from its 48,000-tonTyphoon-class SLBMs – it has one left in service – to the new Borei-class withthree in-service and a further two due to be commissioned next year. The newboats have 16 tubes that can fire the new Bulava sub-launched ballistic missilethat was accepted into service earlier this year and has a range exceeding5,600 miles.

France operates a fleet of four new Triomphant-class SSBNs thatreplaced the older Redoubtable-class in 2008. The new class has 16 missiletubes that can fire the new M51 sub-launched ballistic missile that enteredservice in 2010 and is a more advanced missile reaching almost 7,000 milescompared to the previous intermediate range M45.

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN’s) four Type094 Jin-class SSBNs. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence has assessed thatfour boats have been in operation since 2015 and with its missile load of 12JL-2 intercontinental ballistic missiles that have a range of about 5,000 milesit represents China’s sea-based deterrent capability. The Pentagon believesthat as many as eight could be in-service by 2020 and it has been reported thata new JL-3 missile is being developed to replace the JL-2.

“Recall that India’s quest for nuclear weapons is heavilyinfluenced by China’s acquisition of this capability since the 1960s… it’s withChina in mind that the nuclear triad becomes especially more pertinent to havegiven in the first place, Beijing has been ahead in the development of a myriadof strategic, sub-strategic and tactical offensive missile systems for sometime,” Collin said.

For India, it has yet to reach the stage comparable to theintroduction of the Jin-class but how fast it can follow China in developing acredible sea-based deterrent capability depends on the progress of the ATVprogramme.

A second SSBN to follow Arihant was reported in Indianmedia to have completed sea trials. Named Arighat, the boat is due to bedelivered next year and is expected to be larger than Arihant with acomplement of eight K-4 missiles instead of four. Another two boats after Arighatare planned to be commissioned by 2023. Following from these first fourArihant-class boats another batch of even larger SSBNs is expected.

But it is not just the ability to put boats in the water and tofire missiles from them. The submarines need to be very quiet, totallyundetected and able to sustain operations for long durations. Withoutlong-range intercontinental SLBMs it means the SSBNs will have to get closer totheir target area and therefore increase the chance of detection andneutralization.

“In terms of overall performance where the platform itself isconcerned, its quieting ability especially is still an unknown. And so isdefinitely the issue of reliability, which is then dependent on not only designattributes but also the Indian Navy’s ability to properly maintain and sustainthis force,” Collin said.

SSBNs also require long-range operational support involvingsubmarine tenders, maritime patrol craft as well as an efficient shoresidemaintenance, repair and overhaul regime with the technical capacity to managean SSBN’s complex systems.

“Certainly a complete technological ecosystem that goes beyondjust the boat itself or the missile for that matter [is needed] – it’ll includeachieving complete self-sufficiency for the pressurized water reactorpropulsion (PWR), in the area of quieting, combat systems, etc. In particular,to have a complete technical ecosystem for this, a strong indigenous nuclearindustry base is necessary, which not only includes the ability to developsafe, functioning PWR technologies, but also the know-how for the life cycle ofnuclear propulsion, which involves safe disposal, refuelling, etc,” Collinsaid.

“Insights and experiences gleaned from the ATV, and of coursethe lease of the Akula SSN from Russia, would benefit India’s overall effort toindigenize its submarine capabilities and technological base. Some of thecritical systems, such as combat management, sonar and quieting, that aretrialed and validated in these programmes would spin off onto domesticsubmarine programmes, including conventional boats,” Collin added.

India’s experience with submarines goes back decades with itsdiesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs). India’s existing SSK fleet consistsof the four Shishumar-class (Type 209/1500) submarines, the first two of whichwere built by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems in Kiel, Germany and the second pairby Mazagon Docks Ltd (MDL) in Mumbai under a technology transfer agreement inthe early 1980s. Its remaining fleet is made up of the nine Sindhughosh-classsubmarines that were built by Russia’s Sevmash in the 1980s and 1990s and haverecently undergone a refit.

Due to the increasing age of its fleet, the Indian Navy hasembarked on a plan to renew its fleet by building 24 boats in country andincrease the size of the SSK fleet by one-third. The P-75 programme for six newSSKs was the first step to re-developing the production capabilities at MDLthat is had lost following the completion of its Shishuma-class.

The new P-75 Kalvari-class submarines are being built to theScorpene design from French shipyard Naval Group with the first boat, INS Kalvari,commissioned in November 2017. There have been delays in the programme as a resultof having to re-learn skills at MDL but the second boat is due to becommissioned later this year following sea trials and the remaining four slatedto follow on an annual drumbeat from 2019 to 2023 if no further delays occur.

A second class of six boats is expected under the next P-75Iprogramme that will follow the Kalvari-class. The Indian government has anambition to establish a second line of production and to operate a differentclass of boat, however, this would entail some expense and it may choose tocontinue using the facilities at MDL. Whether it wants to continue partnershipwith Naval Group or return to TKMS or another submarine manufacturer is alsoyet to be decided.

“It might have been tempting to imagine that, buoyed by thelong-awaited success in taking off P75 programme, its high time to go it alone.But this could be premature optimism, since local yards such as MDL would stillhave to work with foreign partners to get a model that suits the Indian Navy’sambitions. I’ll foresee a [P75I] scenario where the design is based on anexisting foreign model, but modified and developed to be customized for Indianrequirements. Certainly the existing, if nascent, infrastructure and capacityin MDL would help matters. At least the Indians won’t have to start fromscratch,” Collin said.