NationalInterest.org, August 7, 2017
Why Russia's Nuclear Submarine Fleet Might Be
'Sinking'
Robert Beckhusen
In March 2017, Russia’s new Yasen-class nuclear
attack submarine Kazan launched at the northern port city of Severodvinsk. Perhaps
the quietest Russian submarine ever, the event was further evidence the Kremlin
can still build capable and lethal subs capable of a variety of missions,
including cruise-missile attack.
But it won’t be enough. The Russian navy —
already badly depleted since the collapse of the Soviet Union — can’t quickly
replace most of its existing nuclear submarine fleet, which is approaching the
end of its collective lifespan. The outcome will likely mean a shrinking of the
Russian nuclear submarine force in the years ahead.
By 2030, the bulk of Russia’s nuclear-powered
attack and cruise-missile submarines will be in their mid-thirties at least —
with some pushing into their forties. For perspective, the three oldest active
American attack submarines, the Los Angeles-class USS Dallas, Bremerton and
Jacksonville, are all 36 years old and waiting to be decommissioned during the
next three years.
Submarines wear out in old age, particularly
due to hull corrosion. Another serious concern is corrosion affecting
components inside the nuclear reactor compartments, but data surrounding this
subject are tightly guarded secrets among the world’s navies.
More to the point, naval vessels staying in
service during old age require more maintenance and longer rest periods. Given
that only around half of Russia’s submarine force — a charitable estimate — can
be at sea at any given time, a force made up of mostly old boats will strain
operational readiness.
The Kremlin’s relatively new multi-role Yasen
class, of which two — the Severodvinsk and Kazan — launched in 2010 and 2017
respectively, cannot make up for the future retirements of Russia’s 11 Akulas,
three Sierras, four Victor IIIattackers and eight Oscar II cruise missile subs,
which are all getting long in the tooth.
The youngest Akula class, Gepard, entered
service in 2000. Most date to the early 1990s.
The Yasen is a late-Soviet design with seven
planned submarines, with the last one planned to enter service in 2023. This is
again being generous given the Yasenclass’ enormous expense, which is twice as
high as one of Russia’s new ballistic missile subs.
While Russia could attempt to keep its Cold
War-era subs going as long as possible, “given the obvious risk of rising
costs, Russia will be able to have no more than 50 percent of the current
number of nuclear submarines [by 2030],” the Russian military blog BMPD warned
in a particularly grim assessment.
Russia’s ballistic missile submarines will be
in somewhat better shape in 2030. Few countries possess “boomers” capable of
dumping nuclear warheads into enemy cities — the United States, India, China,
France, the United Kingdom and North Korea. Russia currently has 13, including
three from the new Borey class, with up to five more on the way.
But by 2030, Russia’s three Delta III, six
Delta IV-class boomers and its one Typhoon class will all be at least 40 years
old if they remain in service. Nevertheless, even if Russia scrapped these
boats and only relied on its newer Boreys, no country can likely match them in
numbers except for the United States, China and possibly India.
Russia could attempt to further make up the gap
in attack- and cruise-missile-submarines with its tentatively-titled
Project Husky, which is still in the design phase.
The Husky could come in three variants for
attack missions, cruise-missile strike — or SSGN — and ballistic missile roles.
Dedicated SSGNs are particularly important for Russia, which has long based its
naval doctrine around long-range missile attacks on American carrier groups.
Russian anti-ship cruise missiles are especially fearsome.
But the most optimistic estimates have Russia
possessing a mere three Huskies by 2030 if construction of the first of the
class begins in the early 2020s — and that’s if the Russian navy keeps up
ordering one every two years with a four-and-a-half year build period.
While the Yasens probably have the ability to
launch cruise missiles as well, that would still leave Russia with around 10
modern nuclear-powered SSNs and dedicated SSGNs alongside two-dozen boats in
their thirties and forties facing looming retirement.
The diesel-electric fleet isn’t in much better
shape, with most of Russia’s 17 Kilo-class hunter-killers dating to the early
1990s. Although more advanced versions, the Project 636 Varshavyanka and the
Lada class, have been commissioned at a brisker pace than the nuclear-powered
Yasens.
Robert Beckhusen is Managing Editor of WarIsBoring.
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