First
Nuclear Deterrence Patrol Marks Major Step for Indian Submarine Force
By: Tim Fish
November 12, 2018
12:58 PM, USNI
When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced earlier this
month that the Indian Navy had completed its first sea-based nuclear deterrent
patrol it was more of a
statement of intent than a demonstration of a new capability.
The Indian Navy’s new ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) INS Arihant
was the boomer that completed the month-long deterrent patrol. Whilst this is
not insignificant – it is the first country outside of the five members of the
U.N. Security Council to develop this capability – it also shows how far away
India is to achieve its goal of joining the other great powers in establishing
a credible sea-based deterrent.
Only the U.S., U.K., France and Russia can sustain
continuous-at-sea deterrent patrols, which a provides continuous launch
capability of a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) by maintaining at
least one SSBN on station at any one time that could fire a nuclear missile. A
continuous patrol requires a minimum of four SSBNs.
The patrol as a statement will have more effect in diplomatic
circles than in military ones. India wants to join the club of countries that
can support a sea-based deterrent and eventually achieve a continuous at-sea
nuclear deterrent. It also means India will have the ability to launch all
three air, land and sea-based types of nuclear weapons and a more robust second
strike capability.
“The Indians have long desired a nuclear triad that’ll allow it
to deter erstwhile adversaries namely Pakistan and China,” Collin Koh Swee
Lean, from the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies at the S. Rajaratnam
School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore told USNI News. “The quest
for sea-based nuclear deterrent is based on at least the theory that a
submarine-launched strategic offensive missile constitutes a highly secure
capability by virtue of the characteristics of a nuclear-powered submarine,
compared to air and land-based systems which could be taken out.”
Arihant’s
design is based on Russia’s Akula-class submarine and it was commissioned in
2016. Displacing 6,000 tons, the boat was built under India’s Advanced
Technology Vessel (ATV) programme that was confirmed in 1998 although it took
other forms before this. The IN has operated the 8,000-ton nuclear-powered
attack submarine (SSN) INS Chakra (former K-152 Nerpa), which it
has leased from Russia for 10 years starting in 2012 following extensive sea
trials. This has informed the operation of Arihant.
Since its commissioning, Arihant has mainly been used as
a training platform and technology demonstrator. The submarine is capable of
firing up to four K-4 intermediate range SLBMs that can reach over 2,000 miles
or 12 short-range K-15 Sagarika missiles that can hit targets at a range of
almost 500 miles. However, India has a policy of keeping its warheads separate
from its missiles, so it is unclear if Arihant’s deterrent patrol used
armed SLBMs.
By comparison the United States operates 14 Ohio-class SSBNs
that represent the US Navy’s sea-based deterrent. Displacing 18,750 tons each
boat can hold 24 D-5 Trident II intercontinental SLBMs (which can reach more
than 7,500 miles) and normally conducts a deterrent patrol lasting 70 to 90
days. First-of-class USS Ohio (SSGN-726) entered service in 1981 and the
class will start to retire from 2029 to be gradually replaced by 12 new
Columbia-class (SSBN-826) boomers. The Columbias are expected to be of a
similar size, although with 16 launch tubes to carry the D-5.
The U.K. Royal Navy operates four Vanguard-class submarines that
also fire the D-5 with tubes for 16 missiles. HMS Vanguard entered
service in 1994 and the class is expected to leave service from the 2030s to be
replaced by four new Dreadnought-class SSBNs. Due to the fewer number of boats
conducting patrols, it is likely that the Vanguards will undertake longer
patrols than their American counterparts, USNI News understands.
Russia’s sea-deterrent has transitioned from its 48,000-ton
Typhoon-class SLBMs – it has one left in service – to the new Borei-class with
three in-service and a further two due to be commissioned next year. The new
boats have 16 tubes that can fire the new Bulava sub-launched ballistic missile
that was accepted into service earlier this year and has a range exceeding
5,600 miles.
France operates a fleet of four new Triomphant-class SSBNs that
replaced the older Redoubtable-class in 2008. The new class has 16 missile
tubes that can fire the new M51 sub-launched ballistic missile that entered
service in 2010 and is a more advanced missile reaching almost 7,000 miles
compared to the previous intermediate range M45.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy’s (PLAN’s) four Type
094 Jin-class SSBNs. The U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence has assessed that
four boats have been in operation since 2015 and with its missile load of 12
JL-2 intercontinental ballistic missiles that have a range of about 5,000 miles
it represents China’s sea-based deterrent capability. The Pentagon believes
that as many as eight could be in-service by 2020 and it has been reported that
a new JL-3 missile is being developed to replace the JL-2.
“Recall that India’s quest for nuclear weapons is heavily
influenced by China’s acquisition of this capability since the 1960s… it’s with
China in mind that the nuclear triad becomes especially more pertinent to have
given in the first place, Beijing has been ahead in the development of a myriad
of strategic, sub-strategic and tactical offensive missile systems for some
time,” Collin said.
For India, it has yet to reach the stage comparable to the
introduction of the Jin-class but how fast it can follow China in developing a
credible sea-based deterrent capability depends on the progress of the ATV
programme.
A second SSBN to follow Arihant was reported in Indian
media to have completed sea trials. Named Arighat, the boat is due to be
delivered next year and is expected to be larger than Arihant with a
complement of eight K-4 missiles instead of four. Another two boats after Arighat
are planned to be commissioned by 2023. Following from these first four
Arihant-class boats another batch of even larger SSBNs is expected.
But it is not just the ability to put boats in the water and to
fire missiles from them. The submarines need to be very quiet, totally
undetected and able to sustain operations for long durations. Without
long-range intercontinental SLBMs it means the SSBNs will have to get closer to
their target area and therefore increase the chance of detection and
neutralization.
“In terms of overall performance where the platform itself is
concerned, its quieting ability especially is still an unknown. And so is
definitely the issue of reliability, which is then dependent on not only design
attributes but also the Indian Navy’s ability to properly maintain and sustain
this force,” Collin said.
SSBNs also require long-range operational support involving
submarine tenders, maritime patrol craft as well as an efficient shoreside
maintenance, repair and overhaul regime with the technical capacity to manage
an SSBN’s complex systems.
“Certainly a complete technological ecosystem that goes beyond
just the boat itself or the missile for that matter [is needed] – it’ll include
achieving complete self-sufficiency for the pressurized water reactor
propulsion (PWR), in the area of quieting, combat systems, etc. In particular,
to have a complete technical ecosystem for this, a strong indigenous nuclear
industry base is necessary, which not only includes the ability to develop
safe, functioning PWR technologies, but also the know-how for the life cycle of
nuclear propulsion, which involves safe disposal, refuelling, etc,” Collin
said.
“Insights and experiences gleaned from the ATV, and of course
the lease of the Akula SSN from Russia, would benefit India’s overall effort to
indigenize its submarine capabilities and technological base. Some of the
critical systems, such as combat management, sonar and quieting, that are
trialed and validated in these programmes would spin off onto domestic
submarine programmes, including conventional boats,” Collin added.
India’s experience with submarines goes back decades with its
diesel-electric attack submarines (SSKs). India’s existing SSK fleet consists
of the four Shishumar-class (Type 209/1500) submarines, the first two of which
were built by ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems in Kiel, Germany and the second pair
by Mazagon Docks Ltd (MDL) in Mumbai under a technology transfer agreement in
the early 1980s. Its remaining fleet is made up of the nine Sindhughosh-class
submarines that were built by Russia’s Sevmash in the 1980s and 1990s and have
recently undergone a refit.
Due to the increasing age of its fleet, the Indian Navy has
embarked on a plan to renew its fleet by building 24 boats in country and
increase the size of the SSK fleet by one-third. The P-75 programme for six new
SSKs was the first step to re-developing the production capabilities at MDL
that is had lost following the completion of its Shishuma-class.
The new P-75 Kalvari-class submarines are being built to the
Scorpene design from French shipyard Naval Group with the first boat, INS Kalvari,
commissioned in November 2017. There have been delays in the programme as a result
of having to re-learn skills at MDL but the second boat is due to be
commissioned later this year following sea trials and the remaining four slated
to follow on an annual drumbeat from 2019 to 2023 if no further delays occur.
A second class of six boats is expected under the next P-75I
programme that will follow the Kalvari-class. The Indian government has an
ambition to establish a second line of production and to operate a different
class of boat, however, this would entail some expense and it may choose to
continue using the facilities at MDL. Whether it wants to continue partnership
with Naval Group or return to TKMS or another submarine manufacturer is also
yet to be decided.
“It might have been tempting to imagine that, buoyed by the
long-awaited success in taking off P75 programme, its high time to go it alone.
But this could be premature optimism, since local yards such as MDL would still
have to work with foreign partners to get a model that suits the Indian Navy’s
ambitions. I’ll foresee a [P75I] scenario where the design is based on an
existing foreign model, but modified and developed to be customized for Indian
requirements. Certainly the existing, if nascent, infrastructure and capacity
in MDL would help matters. At least the Indians won’t have to start from
scratch,” Collin said.
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